Deep-red Idaho just realized Trump’s immigration policy is lethal for its $20 billion dairy industry

A Boise State poll of 1,000 Idaho adults finds 85% support a legal working status pathway for long-term dairy workers — with Republican support at 79%

Under the second Trump administration, the United States has seen mass deportations and a sharp escalation in immigration enforcement. The Department of Homeland Security says the crackdown pushed nearly 3 million people out of the country in Trump’s first year back in office.

For the first time since the 1960s, the number of immigrants living in the U.S. is declining; because most farmworkers are foreign born, those losses are already beginning to strain American farms.

We are social scientists who study immigrant communities in Idaho and the challenges farmworkers face. We also run an annual survey exploring public opinion on a range of policy issues, including immigration and economic conditions. Amid the government’s heated rhetoric, our data shows public opinion on immigration in one of the country’s reddest agricultural states is diverging from national politics and may even be at odds with federal policy.

Immigrant labor in agriculture

According to the Center for Migration Studies, 86% of farmworkers in the U.S. are foreign born, and 45% are undocumented. In 2025 the Trump administration suggested it would not target farms. Still, farmworkers across the country are scared to go to work.

Between March and July 2025, the agricultural workforce declined by 7%, with farms reporting labor shortages in states that voted for Trump, including Pennsylvania, and states that didn’t, including California. Meanwhile, immigration crackdowns are threatening this country’s food security.

National polling on the administration’s immigration policies tends to follow party lines, drawing Democrats’ disapproval and Republicans’ support, but recent polling suggests some softening among the latter. Pew Research Center reported that half of all respondents disapprove of the administration’s approach to immigration, and more than half say Trump is “doing too much” when it comes to deportation. Among Republicans the share is smaller – 20% – but rising.

Research suggests people think about immigration differently at the local level. To explore how public opinion on immigration varies in farm-dependent states, we looked at one of the most agriculture-reliant and Republican states in the country just as its farms face policy-driven labor shortfalls.

A closer look

Agribusiness is important for Idaho’s economy, accounting for 20% of its annual GDP, according to the Idaho State Department of Agriculture. Dairy is a cornerstone: The state is the fourth-largest milk producer in the U.S., according to the Idaho Dairymen’s Association. Ninety percent of Idaho dairy workers are foreign born.

Idaho is also a deeply red state: About 60% of voters are registered Republicans, and 67% voted for Trump in 2024. These numbers make Idaho a clear test of how national rhetoric and intensifying immigration enforcement track with public sentiment in places that have the most to lose.

Our 11th annual Idaho Public Policy Survey polled 1,000 adults in the fall of 2025. Because immigrants have lower crime rates than native-born Americans, we designed a question around long-term residents without a criminal record – specifically, dairy workers and their families who have lived in Idaho more than 10 years.

The results showed broad support for a pathway to legal working status for them: 85% of respondents were in favor, with 56% strongly supportive and 29% somewhat. Just 9% opposed. We expected immigration positions to tie directly to political affiliation, but results cut across party lines, with 79% of Republicans, 88% of independents and 95% of Democrats in favor.

We also asked participants whether increased presence from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, would help or harm Idaho’s agricultural economy. More than half – 53% – said it would harm the economy, 19% said it would help, 18% said there would be no impact, and 10% were unsure.

The pattern was sharpest where it would matter most: Residents of agriculture-dependent regions were more likely to say ICE presence would hurt the economy. Republicans were more likely than others to say it would help; even so, only 35% of Republicans responded that way, compared with 11% of independents and less than 3% of Democrats.

In agriculture-dependent Idaho, many residents say they recognize the role immigrants play in sustaining local rural economies, and research shows that recognition can shift attitudes about immigration, potentially increasing support for more inclusive policies.

According to our research, public opinion in Idaho is more nuanced than the right-left divide suggests. We believe findings here are likely to hold in other places similarly dependent on agriculture, as farmers from Wisconsin to Delaware speak up about their reliance on immigrant labor.

Lisa Meierotto, Associate Professor of Global Studies and Environmental Studies, Boise State University; Matthew May, Research Scholar, Boise State University, and Rebecca Som Castellano, Director of Human-Environment Systems and Professor of Sociology, Boise State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com