The 38-point framework two VCs use to spot the next unicorn founder

18 unicorns in, this VC couple says the secret is finding 'monsters,' not resumes.

Paige and Leura Craig aren’t looking for product-market fit, a Stanford degree, or a Zuck-evoking hoodie. They’re looking for entrepreneurs with preternatural forward momentum. 

“Basically, we’re looking for these monsters that can make decisions in chaos, constantly getting things off the plate, constantly making decisions and just moving forward,” Paige, founder and managing partner at Outlander VC, told Fortune. 

Yes, this is an especially colorful way of articulating more or less what all early-stage VCs are looking for—entrepreneurs who can barrel through, adapt, and ultimately thrive. 

The Craigs—who are married and run Outlander VC, backing companies like SpaceX, Scale, Flock, and Gusto—have sought to codify something investors have long sought to understand: How can you tell early that someone has the potential to be a generational entrepreneur? The Craigs have drawn from experience and Paige’s military background—he served in the U.S. Marines and built and sold private intelligence firm Lincoln Group—to create a 38-point framework by which they assess every founder. (Outlander currently has 18 unicorns and one “baby on the way,” as Leura jokes, with drone software maker Havoc at $750 million.)

“It’s not just about adding or subtracting attributes,” said Leura. “It’s also the way the attributes are scored, and the way that the process is run…More than anything, the framework serves as a way for the investment team to have a shared vocabulary around what excellence really means.”

The 38‑point framework has four domains—vision, intelligence, character, and execution—with a heavy emphasis on character and execution. The number of points, or characteristics on the list has waxed or waned over time (at one point there were as many as 43; and they started with 14 in 2014). Their core belief: That who someone is can ultimately determine who survives. 

“We go through a short call, a long call, and a deep dive,” said Paige. “You might spend 15 to 20 hours going through a founder’s entire life, asking about life, church, temple, death, parents, and babies. These calls are therapeutic for some people, maybe painful for others.”

Outlander, which has a six-person team, teaches everyone 21 intelligence-gathering-inspired elicitation tactics—conversational methods like reverse chronology and deliberate rapport‑building—to get past canned answers into how prospective founders actually conduct themselves under stress.

The Craigs are a touch cagey on naming specifics, but I managed to get a few out of them: Characteristics they’re screening for include obsession, fortitude, irrational optimism, and a clear sense of what motivates them, whether it’s mission or money. 

“For me, character’s probably the most deterministic,” said Paige. “Character, for us, is basically summarized as people who have incredible fortitude, who can endure anything, survive and lead others through it. People with weak character give up too early… And that’s probably the number-one killer in the early days.”

The “irrational optimism” they’re looking for is prismatic in what it reveals about entrepreneurship in the 2020s: It’s a tightrope. On one hand, you need to be irrationally optimistic to believe you could, in fact, build a multibillion‑dollar company in a decade or less. But on the other hand, you also have to recognize failure, and know when to alter the plan. Outlander tracks where founders fall, and you can easily be too delusional, or too risk-averse.

“Making the decision to be a founder is like making the decision to wake up and be punched in the face every day,” said Leura. “And just when something starts going well, something else goes badly.”

See you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com

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This story was originally featured on Fortune.com